Massively got a response from NCsoft about my article on the future of CoH/V. The terms “alarmist” and “sensationalist” are used, as are how “excited” NCsoft is about the future of CoH/V.
All fair enough and par for the course. This blog is my opinion and NCsoft is completely free to challenge that opinion. If any of the facts are wrong, I’m happy to admit a mistake and fix it. But ultimately I stand by my opinion of how things might shake out for CoH/V.
NCsoft West has had some big successes, but also some big failures. My concerns are that CoH/V has to hit some home runs with Going Rogue in terms of active player numbers or else Paragon Studios is going to find its resources / people diverted, just as many of those working for NCsoft Europe did. CoH/V won’t be canned overnight if Going Rogue isn’t deemed a success – it still brings in about 7% of NCsoft’s annual worldwide sales revenue, according to the Q4 2008 Earnings Report – but I can’t see the same level of reinvestment continuing into the title either.
As for NCsoft being excited for the future of CoH/V: it was just over two months difference between Tabula Rasa being “triple-A and here to stay” and its cancellation. I fully believe that NCsoft will completely support the future of CoH/V, right up to the point that it stops.
That’s just the way it works.
World Class Villains 
Seven per cent is last year’s number, for sure. However, in the three quarters so far this year, CoX respresents only 5% (Q1), 4% (Q2), and most recently 3% (Q3) of overall revenue.
Under the new Aion-dominated financials, CoX is a smaller fry than ever. That worries me with NCSoft’s mentality. It wouldn’t worry me otherwise.
The conference call worries me as well, having finally listened to it for Q3. Aion is hungry for resources. Headcount is mentioned in almost every conference call. Improving and expanding Aion is almost certainly going to give more return than improving and expanding CoX. I worry that they might shift resources since Aion’s western market debut was so surprisingly strong.
I haven’t listened to the conference call, but Aion has done really well – almost 1m boxes shifted in the West at launch. Retention figures will be interesting to see (if they release them at all). If my belief about where NCsoft is going to be focusing its future – Korean titles converted to the West – then a great start for Aion isn’t such a great thing for CoH/V.
I really do hope that Going Rogue grabs players back, because otherwise one announcement in Paragon Studios’ future could easily be “Our next titles are going to be Punch Monster and Soul and Blade”.